In October 2025, we published our first Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) analysis for electric heavy-duty vehicles (eHDVs). The conclusion was clear: when assessed across the full lifecycle, electric trucks present a compelling financial case proving that a forward-looking TCO perspective is essential.
Since then, the market gained momentum
Policy updates, improved vehicle efficiency, and real performance data have further strengthened the economics of electrification. The question is no longer if eHDVs become cost-competitive, but how quickly fleets can capture the advantage.Â
At the same time, the broader energy context has shifted
The recent energy crisis has exposed the structural risks of reliance on fossil fuels, with volatility in oil and gas prices increasing operating costs by 9–11 cents per kilometre and adding uncertainty for fleet operators. As energy remains a dominant component of TCO, this volatility has reinforced the importance of cost predictability.
In this environment, electrification offers a clear advantage. Electricity prices, particularly when linked to domestic renewable generation are more stable and increasingly decoupled from global fossil fuel markets. This dynamic is accelerating improvements in TCO for electric trucks relative to diesel alternatives.
And so, the urgency to scale both vehicles and infrastructure is increasing.
In this updated white paper, we reassess the use cases in the context of the latest policy, technology and market data, using the same lifecycle methodology as the original report. The goal remains unchanged: we aim to provide a clear, forward-looking economic view that supports informed investment decisions during a period of rapid transition. Â
What are the trends?Â
- The positive TCO trend continues across key markets – The updated lifecycle modelling shows stronger economics, from 2026 onwards, in our original use cases in Germany and the Netherlands. A new use case for Sweden shows we can expect a positive TCO shortly after 2027. Favourable policies, improved vehicle efficiency, and a maturing public charging network support each use case in the context of its local market.
- The rise in charging demand drives lower prices – More electric trucks on the road lead to higher utilisation of charging points. This, in turn, spreads infrastructure costs over more kilowatt-hours, reducing the cost base for charge point operators (CPOs). Volume-based pricing is a concept designed around this effect, passing the benefits of higher utilisation back to fleets.
- Early electrification unlocks future volume discounts – With phased fleet transitions, the first electric trucks remain in operation as total charging volumes grow. This means those early trucks benefit from the larger volume discounts unlocked later in the transition, improving their lifecycle costs.Â
What changed since 2025?
Supportive policy measures, clearer regulatory frameworks, and improved vehicle efficiency are reinforcing each other, making the economic case for electrification stronger, more predictable, and less dependent on subsidies.Â
A market shift: from shared investment to shared value
This year’s report highlights how fleet adoption and charging infrastructure economics are becoming increasingly interconnected. As eHDV deployment drives higher utilisation of public charging, costs decrease, creating shared value. Fleets that accelerate this transition enable greater cost efficiency, and in turn benefit from more competitive pricing linked to their growing charging volumes.
As shown in both the Dutch and German use cases, once TCO turns positive, fleet adoption accelerates, driving utilisation, improving infrastructure economics, and reinforcing the business case for everyone involved.
Key recommendations for fleets:
- Take a forward-looking view on costs: don’t underestimate the pace of change. Fuel prices, policy updates and CO₂-differentiated tolling will continue to strengthen the economic case for electric.
- Request a tailored TCO and route assessment:Â review which of your routes can already be electrified and which deliver the strongest lifecycle-cost benefits.
- Use volume-based pricing to your advantage:Â growing your electric fleet means increasing your public-charging volumes, which gives you access to long-term savings.
- Explore deeper partnerships with charging infrastructure providers: this can enable volume-based agreements and support with operational needs.
Timing and strategy matter now more than ever. As the transition enters a new phase, the moment to act is now.Â
Want the full insights? Download the full report and plan your electrification strategy with confidence.
